The electricity system will face a shortfall of supply over demand for the next decade, according to grid operator EirGrid.
Its annual Generation Capacity Statement, published today, describes the situation as “stark” and “serious” and warns the number of system alerts will increase.
This latest report on the country’s demand for and supply of electricity highlights how in the short term, the shortfall in the supply of electricity has worsened.
There are several reasons why.
The report notes the performance of existing power plants is “poor” and that some plants which had been due to remain in operation until September next year have been shut down due to technical issues. This has taken 590 megawatts (MW) out of the system.
The report notes that in recent years an average of 25% of existing generation capacity has been hit by unexpected outages.
Added to that, 630MW of power which had been contracted to come from new plants has failed to materialise as the developers have pulled out.
EirGrid also says it believes not all projects awarded under a recent auction will be delivered by their due date because of technical and planning difficulties.
It also notes that power demand from data centres already contracted to the grid is now expected to be higher than previously forecast.
Overall, EirGrid expects demand for electricity to increase by 37% by 2031 with 28% of demand by then coming from data centres and other large users. In 2021, data centres and other large users accounted for 17% of demand.
It also forecasts the share taken by electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps will increase from 2% in 2021 to 13% in 2031. This is based on the Government’s targets for pumps and EVs under the Climate Action Plan being fulfilled.
The report also noted, however, that in recent months demand has moderated in response to higher prices and is currently trending between medium and low scenarios.
EirGrid’s plan to tackle the shortfall in supply has been developed alongside the sector’s regulator, the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities. It includes the procurement of 700MW of temporary generators and a reduction in the use of electricity at peak times through higher tariffs.
Auctions are also to take place to secure additional modern gas-fired plants and the life of existing plants is to be extended.
Gap between electricity demand and supply to get worse
Source: Viral Trends Report
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